SUPERBOWL

So for the NFL post-season, I have been predicting winning teams. So far, I'm at 8/11 (including the oddly early Pro Bowl).

Because my team got to Superbowl, I decided to take a more scientific approach based on what I have seen from both teams this season.

Given how impressed I have been with Packers from a neutral perspective throughout both the regular and post-seasons, I have tried to keep it as impartial as possible.

Okay, here goes...

OFFENSE

In Aaron Rodgers, Green Bay perhaps have a more complete QB than Pittsburgh. For all James Starks has achieved this season, questions will remain over whether Rodgers can count on him to pick up the crucial yards . Brandon Jackson will be asked to do a lot on third down and Green Bay can be predictable in this respect. Jordy Nelson has looked strong of late and Greg Jennings will be a formidable opponent for the Steelers’ de.

Green Bay’s OL have had an excellent post-season (I can only think of maybe 1 or 2 sacks) but are relying on a 34 year old.

Ben Roethlisberger has had his troubles but there remains a certain steeliness about him and his ability while scrambling is an attribute that the Steelers would do well to utilise. In the air, a lot will depend on the protection, and the fitness of Pouncey to make the big blocks. On the ground, if Rashard Mendenhall finds himself some space, his strength and pace on the rush could be a handful for the Packers’ de. Hines Ward will also have a big task with Antonio Brown looking more than an able deputy.

Steelers’ offensive line will be hugely vulnerable if Maurkice Pouncey doesn’t make it. The fact that a rookie is so crucial to Steelers' cause highlights a real weakness. In the post-season, this weakness has been more apparent in the second half of games – a trait Pittsburgh can’t afford at a Superbowl.

Overall, Packers just shade offense.

DEFENSE

At linebacker, James Harrison in particular has had a fantastic post-season for Steelers, with Timmons and Farrior looking impressive too. Lamarr Woodley is also reliable on pass rushing. Steelers’ main weakness on their de appears to be their defensive line BUT in the secondary, Troy Polamalu can be a game changer.

Packers’ linebacker Clay Matthews is a man-mountain but Green Bay don’t have the same depth in this area. In the Packers’ DL, BJ Raji is a monster and in their secondary Tramon Williams has sparked some fantastic post-season performances for Green Bay’s de.

For me, Steelers’ defense looks the stronger.

SPECIALS

James Starks hasn’t impressed me on kick return and it is clear that this is not a strong area for Green Bay. Punt return is a similar story with Williams prone to fumbling.

Antonio Brown looks explosive on returns and has great pace over distance. I seem to recall a 90 yard touchdown run in Tennessee. At 31, Randle El will have lost a yard or two in pace from his previous Superbowl outing but can still get it done with the right blocks.

Both sides are pretty even on kicking so Pittsburgh’s superiority on the return should see them good on specials.

On the whole, we should see an incredibly tight game with Green Bay’s strengths exploiting Pittsburgh’s weaknesses and vice versa. Special teams have been huge in recent Superbowls and could be crucial this year too.

Billy’s (more scientific than usual) Superbowl XLV tip: Steelers